Friday, March 15, 2013

UND hockey: Time for crunching numbers is over, it’s crunch time

There has been a lot of discussion this week, about UND’s first round WCHA playoff match-up against the Michigan Tech Huskies.

On paper, the match-up really doesn’t look like much. This series looks like a series that UND “should” win in two games and should be resting on Sunday night while other teams are playing game three.

Of course, WCHA hockey is played on the ice, not on paper.

Since UND beat them 6-1 and 4-1, the Huskies have gone a respectable 8-8-1 (.531). On the other hand, UND has gone 9-5-4 (.611).

From what I have been reading this week,  you would think that UND is playing the Gophers or Saint Cloud State Huskies in the first round of the WCHA Playoffs.

To me, it almost sounds like sandbagging.

If UND wants to advance to the Final Five, they’re going to have to beat the Huskies and they’re going to need to get a lead early on Friday, so they don’t have to play catch up on Saturday and possibly on Sunday as well. The task at hand is simply, play hardnosed hockey and win.  

Stick to the game plan and the “Green and White” will win.

I decided to take a closer look at who the Tech Huskies have played since they last played UND back on December 14-15, 2012.

They obviously beat a very bad Michigan team  (15-18-3) they followed up that win by beating the offensively starved Western Michigan Broncos (19-9-8) to give the Tech Huskies the Great Lakes Invitational. Those were big wins.

The Huskies took 11 days off and followed up that impressive GLI tourney championship by being swept by the ninth placed UMD Bulldogs (14-17-5). The next weekend, the Huskies took three of four points from the 11th place Bemidji State Beavers (6-20-8). The Huskies record for the month of January is 1-2-1 (.250).

The Month of February saw the Huskies split with the Nebraska-Omaha Red Mavericks (18-16-2) and the Alaska Anchorage Seawolves (4-23-7). Also, there was a non-conference win against their cross state rivals the Northern Michigan Wildcats (15-19-4) before being swept by the Minnesota State Purple Mavericks (22-11-3).  The Huskies record during the month of February is 3-4-0 (.428).

The Month of March included a split with Saint Cloud State (21-14-1) and Colorado College (14-17-4). The Huskies record for the month of March is 2-2-0, (.500) so far.

No one is suggesting that the Michigan Tech Huskies are going to be an easy out. No one is saying that MTU can’t beat  UND, but this is a team that UND “should” beat. I also guarantee that UND is not overlooking the MTU Huskies either.

But let’s take a little closer look at the numbers. UND, during the second half run was 9-5-4 (.611). During that time frame, UND scored 57 goals averaging 3.16 goals per game, giving up 2.50 goals per game. UND to date has also played the third toughest schedule per the RPI rankings.

In the last ten conference games that UND played in they went 6-2-2 against Wisconsin, Nebraska-Omaha, Denver, Bemidji State and Minnesota State.

During the 8-8-1 stretch for MTU, the Huskies have scored 3.35 goals, while giving up only 2.41 goals against. MTU to date has played the 42nd toughest schedule. Just for comparison sake, during their last 11 games the Huskies have a 5-6-1 record. The extra game was the non-conference win against Northern Michigan Wildcats. If you take out that win the Huskies have a 4-6-0 conference record their last 10 games.

One could say that the time for talking and statistics are over, some have said that this team has under achieved this season, based on the talent that they have on their roster. 

For UND, it starts tonight, with a clean slate, ready to defend their WCHA playoff title. Where this team goes from here is anyone’s guess. I would say that the sky is the limit.

Cross-posted at the Hockey Writers Combine.